(above: Carl Phillipp Gottfried von Clausewitz)
On Sustainment
By Jamie Arbuckle, for Peacehawks
A major factor in the planning, the development and the conduct of operations is sustainment: keeping it up, staying in the fight, absorbing the losses, and then absorbing more losses.
As the Duke of Wellington said as the Battle of Waterloo developed, „Hard pounding, gentlemen, let’s see who pounds the longest.“
Sustainment might be, after the traditional ten, the eleventh principle of war.
What follows here is the gleaning of an amateur researcher from fifteen minutes on the Internet.
Russia-Ukraine
What does this mean in the Ukraine today?
Ukrainian casualties to date are approximately 120,000 killed, and 170,000 wounded. In a country of almost 50 million, that is probably marginally acceptable. If it is not, then perhaps the Ukrainian government might take more interest in the estimated 250,000 males of military age currently living in Germany and, of course, the many, many more of their “refugee” brethren the world over.
Total Russian casualties (killed and wounded) in the past two years have been, according to US estimates, 325,000 or, as estimated by the Ukrainians, 635,000. * In a country of almost 150 million, the lower figure might be acceptable; the higher would probably not be. And Ukrainians know what they are fighting for, while the Russians almost certainly do not – witness the thousands of deserters from the Russian army formations in and around Ukraine.
By contrast, the Americans lost in Vietnam 58,220 killed – in 20 years (1955-75). In a nation of (then) just over 200 million, that was not sustainable.
If we take the more conservative American estimates of Russian casualties (above), and if we assume that 1/3 of that total were killed, then the Russians have lost in two years over 100,000 killed, almost twice as many as the Americans lost in 20 years in Vietnam. And, as with the American forces in Vietnam in the 60s, Russian forces today may be very much on, certainly close to, an edge.
Israel
Israel has a population of 9.5 million. The Israeli Defense Force (IDF) consists of 169,000 regular forces, and 495,000 reserves. That is nearly 700,000, which is almost 8% of the population.
The Israeli defense budget for 2024 is USD 30.5 billion, which is 4.5% of the Israeli economy, and which is the highest in the OECD; it is 12.4% of the total budget of Israel. It is generally reckoned that a highly sophisticated, post-industrial nation can for limited periods expend 10% of its budget on defense.
Since 1948, Israel has received USD158 billion, the largest aid granted in US history. US military aid to Israel in 2023 was nearly 4 billion USD, which is more than 10% of the total defense budget (for 2024).
In 2023 the Israeli defense budget was overspent by 32%, and in 2024 the budget was increased by 87%.
Iron Dome, the anti-missile missile system, was provided to Israel by the US at a cost of USD1 billion.
Fighting on three fronts -or is it now four? – and dependent on external aid, Israel and the IDF must also be very much on edge.
Conclusion
Sustainment will be a very large elephant in any room where war is discussed, yet there has been no speculation about nor any media coverage of this issue in either of the two wars discussed here. Be in no doubt that everyone involved, whether American, Israeli or Palestinian, Russian or Ukrainian, carries this with them – everywhere and always.
It must also be self-evident that neither the Russian nor the Israeli leadership has had any idea they might find themselves in this position at this time, and it will also be abundantly clear that neither has ever had the slightest idea of what to do about it.
Pounding harder might not be the best thing to do.
- The higher figures for Russian casualties arise partly because they had many more troops deployed in the area, plus the fact that attacking troops will commonly suffer up to three times as many casualties as the defenders.